Becoming the Change You Want to See

Invited Lecture at Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science, on 22 Apr 2021. ABSTRACT: A materialistic approach to life locates problems in external reality, and attempts to find technological, political, or economic solutions. This represents a misdiagnosis which makes cures impossible to find. The anthropocene was brought about by the spiritual stunting now widespread across the… Read More Becoming the Change You Want to See

Spurious Regressions

{} In previous lectures (Causal Explanation of Autonomy & Invariance of Regression Relationships ), we have seen the essential importance of analyzing the causal structure of the variables under study via path diagrams. In this lecture, we study one aspect of this which creates serious problems for understanding and interpreting regression results. This is the problem… Read More Spurious Regressions

Causal Explanation of Autonomy & Invariance of Regression Relationships

As discussed by Hoover in “Lost Causes”, the concept of causality was dropped from econometrics for many decades, although it is currently making a resurgence. Nonetheless the revolution launched by Judea Pearl in the 1990’s has not percolated to econometrics textbooks. As a result, satisfactory definitions of key concepts required to make sense of regression… Read More Causal Explanation of Autonomy & Invariance of Regression Relationships

Causal versus Positivist Econometrics

Defining Feature of Real Econometrics: {} We can define “Real Econometrics” as being the search for causal relationships within a collection of variables. There exists an enormous amount of confusion about what exactly is a causal relationship. We will take a simple and practical approach, developed by Woodward in his book on “Making Things Happen”.… Read More Causal versus Positivist Econometrics

Flawed Foundations of Social Sciences

{} The central goal of this Lecture 10A on “Real Statistics: An Islamic Approach”, is to establish that standard methodologies currently in use in statistics/econometrics, particularly regression, are built on the wrong foundations, and incapable of generating knowledge. To understand WHY this is so, it is necessary to study the flawed philosophy of science used… Read More Flawed Foundations of Social Sciences

Econometrics to Prove Everything!

I reproduce below an excerpt from my paper on “Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequence“, which discusses how “specification searches” allow us to fit models conforming to any theory to any data set. Thus conventional econometric methodology can be used to prove anything at all. References in the excerpt can be obtained from the bibliography in… Read More Econometrics to Prove Everything!