Econometrics to Prove Everything!

I reproduce below an excerpt from my paper on “Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequence“, which discusses how “specification searches” allow us to fit models conforming to any theory to any data set. Thus conventional econometric methodology can be used to prove anything at all. References in the excerpt can be obtained from the bibliography in… Read More Econometrics to Prove Everything!

Time-Branching Probabilities

Originally posted on An Islamic WorldView:
General Introduction: Meanings and Philosophy In lecture 8A, we gave a new definition of probability. Each random event has many possible outcomes. One of these possibilities is realized, at which point all other possibilities become “what might have happened”, while the realized outcome acquires 100% probability. Probability is about…

Marilyn & the Goats: A New Solution to an Old Problem

Introduction: In a previous lecture, we gave a New Definition of Probability. In this lecture, we will show how this definition enables us to resolve the massive amount of controversy which surrounds an apparently simple probability puzzle, known as the Monty-Hall problem. The book The Power of Logical Thinking, quotes cognitive psychologist Massimo Piattelli Palmarini: “No other statistical… Read More Marilyn & the Goats: A New Solution to an Old Problem

A New Definition of Probability

Lecture 8A provides answers to the question of “What is Probability?”. An article by Alan Hajek in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy lists six major categories of definitions. Many more are possible if causality is also taken into account. These definitions conflict with each other, and face serious problems as interpretations of real-world probabilities. As Bertrand Russell quipped:… Read More A New Definition of Probability

Critique of Rajan on Debt

{bit.ly/WPcrd} For necessary background, please see previous posts on “ABC’s of Modern Monetary Theory” and “Differentiating Social, Market, and Government Debt”. In this post, I will provide a critique of Raguram Rajan’s article “How Much Debt is Too Much?”. (Alternative link to Rajan’s article) The article opens with a description of the governments “opening their… Read More Critique of Rajan on Debt