I reproduce below an excerpt from my paper on “Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequence“, which discusses how “specification searches” allow us to fit models conforming to any theory to any data set. Thus conventional econometric methodology can be used to prove anything at all. References in the excerpt can be obtained from the bibliography in… Read More Econometrics to Prove Everything!
The previous post (Realizing your career is a sham!) provides an intro and a link to the first hour of my interview/podcast with Jeff Epstein for his Activist MMT blog. This first hour was mostly biographical. The second hour of the podcast was concerned with conventional economics, MMT, and Islamic economics. Jeff provides a brief abstract… Read More MMT: East & West
I am posting a link to my interview with Jeff Epstein for his podcast on his website: Activist MMT. This is a link to the first hour of the interview, which is mostly personal biographical details about the development of my thought. Welcome to episode 56 of Activist #MMT. Today I talk with Pakistani PhD… Read More Realizing your career is a sham!
This is an elementary expositional piece explaining how the N choose K formula is derived and used to calculate Binomial probabilities. For the complete lecture on the Binomial Distribution, and how it is used in time-branching probability models, see http://bit.ly/rsia08d Given a sequence of time periods from 1,2,…, N, we can fill them up with… Read More The N Choose K formula
Originally posted on An Islamic WorldView:
General Introduction: Meanings and Philosophy In lecture 8A, we gave a new definition of probability. Each random event has many possible outcomes. One of these possibilities is realized, at which point all other possibilities become “what might have happened”, while the realized outcome acquires 100% probability. Probability is about…
Introduction: In a previous lecture, we gave a New Definition of Probability. In this lecture, we will show how this definition enables us to resolve the massive amount of controversy which surrounds an apparently simple probability puzzle, known as the Monty-Hall problem. The book The Power of Logical Thinking, quotes cognitive psychologist Massimo Piattelli Palmarini: “No other statistical… Read More Marilyn & the Goats: A New Solution to an Old Problem
Lecture 8A provides answers to the question of “What is Probability?”. An article by Alan Hajek in Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy lists six major categories of definitions. Many more are possible if causality is also taken into account. These definitions conflict with each other, and face serious problems as interpretations of real-world probabilities. As Bertrand Russell quipped:… Read More A New Definition of Probability
{bit.ly/WPcrd} For necessary background, please see previous posts on “ABC’s of Modern Monetary Theory” and “Differentiating Social, Market, and Government Debt”. In this post, I will provide a critique of Raguram Rajan’s article “How Much Debt is Too Much?”. (Alternative link to Rajan’s article) The article opens with a description of the governments “opening their… Read More Critique of Rajan on Debt
A previous post on “Causes of the Global Financial Crisis” provided a detailed summary of the first three chapters of “House of Debt” by Mian and Sufi. This post provides a brief summary of Chapters 4 and 5, in which they present a theoretical framework which explains why leveraged debt leads to high unemployment following… Read More Debt, Levered Losses, & Unemployment
{bit.ly/AZdebt} In a previous post on “ABC’s of MMT”, I explained the basics of MMT as a preliminary to a critique of Raghuram Rajan’s article on “How Much Debt is Too Much?”. A significant part of the discussion on this post consisted of debates over words and their meanings. My use of words like assets,… Read More Differentiating Social, Market, and Government Debts
